Trying to make sense of Memphis housing numbers? Terms like months of inventory, days on market, and sale-to-list ratio can feel like alphabet soup when you are trying to plan a move. You want a clear picture of what these metrics mean and how they show up across Memphis and Shelby County. In this guide, you will learn the basics, see how to read local signals, and get a simple checklist to research your neighborhood. Let’s dive in.
Key market metrics, in plain English
Understanding a few core metrics helps you judge whether conditions favor buyers, sellers, or are balanced.
- Active listings: The number of homes currently for sale in a defined area.
- Monthly sales (closed): The number of homes that actually closed in the most recent month.
- Months of inventory (absorption rate): Active listings divided by average monthly closed sales. As a rule of thumb used by market analysts and the National Association of REALTORS, under 3 months is a seller’s market, around 3 to 6 months is balanced, and over 6 months is a buyer’s market.
- Days on market (DOM): How long a home takes to go under contract or to close, depending on the data feed. MLS reports usually measure to contract. The trend matters as much as the number.
- List-to-sale price ratio: Sale price divided by list price, multiplied by 100. Over 100 percent means frequent bidding above list. Around 98 to 100 percent means homes are selling near asking. Under 98 percent suggests buyers have more room to negotiate.
- New listings vs. pendings: Compares fresh supply with new demand in the same period. If pendings grow faster than new listings, that is supportive for sellers even as more homes hit the market.
- Price reductions and withdrawals: Frequent or faster price cuts signal softening demand. Slower or fewer cuts point to a tighter market.
- Cash share and investor activity: A higher share of cash purchases and investor-tagged sales can change dynamics, especially in price-sensitive neighborhoods.
How to read metrics together
Never read one metric in isolation. When prices are rising, inventory is falling, and DOM is short, you are likely in a strong seller’s market. When prices soften, inventory grows, and DOM stretches, buyers gain leverage. Watch the list-to-sale ratio and price reductions alongside months of inventory to confirm the story.
What these signals mean in Memphis
Memphis and Shelby County often show lower median prices than many U.S. metros. The area offers a wide mix of home types and price tiers, from older bungalows and mid-century ranches to new construction and luxury estates. That diversity means citywide averages can hide major neighborhood differences.
Local demand is influenced by mortgage rates, the employment base tied to logistics and healthcare, and investor interest in single-family rentals. Affordability attracts both first-time buyers and out-of-market investors, but rate changes can shift purchasing power quickly. Like most markets, Memphis is seasonal, with more listings and buyer activity in spring and a slower pace in winter.
Memphis micro-markets at a glance
Every area has its own rhythm. Use these profiles as a starting point, then confirm with recent neighborhood data.
Downtown, South Main, Medical District
You will see a mix of condos, townhomes, and infill projects close to major employers. Activity can be more sensitive to investor presence and new supply, so prices may move faster than in stable suburban areas. Pay attention to DOM and list-to-sale ratios by building or sub-area.
Midtown, Cooper-Young, Overton Square
This area features older homes, bungalows, and renovated properties with walkable amenities. Inventory of move-in-ready single-family homes can be tight, which affects DOM and pricing. Compare similar bed-bath counts and condition, since rehab needs vary street by street.
East Memphis
Expect established neighborhoods and larger single-family homes. Buyers often weigh long-term resale value and proximity to everyday amenities. Watch months of inventory and recent price reductions to gauge how quickly well-presented homes move.
Germantown and Collierville
Higher price tiers and newer subdivisions are common in these suburbs. Families often consider local school information as part of their decision. Monitor months of inventory by subdivision and track list-to-sale ratios to set expectations on pricing and negotiation.
Bartlett and Cordova
These northeast suburbs offer mid-priced single-family homes with steady resale activity. First-time buyers and commuters often target this segment. Keep an eye on new listings versus pendings to understand weekend competition.
Whitehaven, Frayser, South Memphis
More affordable price points draw a mix of owner-occupants and investors. Renovation level can vary widely, which affects DOM and sale-to-list outcomes. Check cash share and investor-labeled sales to understand local dynamics.
Airport and logistics corridors
Proximity to logistics employers supports rental demand and investor attention. If you are buying to live in the home, compare owner-occupied shares and recent resale activity. If you are investing, review rent comps alongside sale metrics.
Short-, medium-, and long-term market signals
Short-term: weekly to monthly
- Track new listings and pendings to see supply and demand balance in real time.
- Falling DOM and frequent competitive offers suggest urgency for buyers.
- Rising price reductions and longer DOM for several weeks signal cooling conditions.
Medium-term: quarterly trends
- Months of inventory averaged across the last 3 to 6 months smooths noise and clarifies leverage.
- Sale-to-list ratio trends show whether sellers are consistently achieving full asking.
- Median sale price over 6 to 12 months highlights actual value movement, not just list price changes.
Long-term: annual and structural
- Employment changes at major employers and the broader logistics sector shape sustained demand.
- The new construction pipeline and zoning updates influence future inventory.
- The interest rate backdrop drives affordability and can shift buyer timing.
How buyers can use this today
- Start with months of inventory and DOM in your target neighborhoods to understand speed and pressure.
- In faster segments, plan for clean terms and prepare documents early. In cooler segments, explore concessions and price flexibility.
- Compare list-to-sale ratios for homes like the one you want. Move-in-ready homes may sell closer to or above list, while fixers can trade with larger discounts.
- If you are concerned about investor activity, ask for cash share and investor-tagged sale data alongside recent comps.
How sellers can use this today
- Price to the market you have, not the one you wish for. Use the last 30 to 90 days of closed comps and the current list-to-sale ratio.
- Watch your micro-market’s new listings vs. pendings. If pendings lead, strong presentation and accurate pricing can drive quicker, cleaner offers.
- Prepare the home for its likely buyer pool. In tighter segments, crisp staging and premium photography help you capture near-list or better. In slower segments, plan for thoughtful price strategy and targeted marketing.
- Track early signals after launch: showings, saves, and feedback. If you see lagging interest and your segment shows rising price reductions, respond quickly.
Where to find trustworthy numbers
Rely on local-first sources for the most accurate read:
- Memphis Area Association of REALTORS and the local MLS for monthly snapshots and neighborhood CMAs.
- Shelby County Assessor of Property and Trustee for parcel records, historical sales, and tax references.
- City and county planning departments for new development approvals and zoning changes.
- National Association of REALTORS for standard market definitions and thresholds.
- Public trend dashboards for quick checks; verify important figures with MLS data before deciding.
- U.S. Census and Bureau of Labor Statistics for population and employment context.
- FEMA Flood Map Service Center to check flood zone status for addresses on your shortlist.
Neighborhood research checklist
Use this simple list to compare areas on a like-for-like basis:
- 3- and 12-month median sale price and percent change
- Active listings and months of inventory
- Median DOM and 30/60/90-day trend
- Median list-to-sale ratio and frequency of price reductions
- New listings vs. pendings in the last 30 days
- Typical days from list to contract
- Share of cash purchases and investor-labeled sales
- Local school report cards, commute times, and nearby amenities
- Zoning changes or large projects planned nearby
- Flood zone status and property tax references
Bringing it all together
In Memphis and across Shelby County, the best decisions come from reading several metrics together, then zooming in to the street or subdivision level. Citywide averages are a helpful backdrop, but your plan should hinge on your price point, home type, and micro-market. With a clear grasp of months of inventory, DOM, and sale-to-list trends, you can set strategy, negotiate confidently, and move at the right speed.
If you want a neighborhood-specific read and a pricing or purchase plan tailored to your goals, connect with a local advisor who pairs data with on-the-ground insight. Let’s talk about your timeline, your must-haves, and the metrics that matter for your move.
Ready to get started? Reach out to Carrie Benitone for a focused plan, whether you are buying, selling, or exploring land and development options.
FAQs
Is Memphis a buyer’s or seller’s market right now?
- Check months of inventory, the DOM trend, and the list-to-sale ratio for your exact neighborhood; under 3 months of inventory usually favors sellers, 3 to 6 is balanced, and over 6 favors buyers.
How quickly do homes sell in my Memphis neighborhood?
- Look at median DOM for the last 30 to 90 days for similar homes in size and condition; move-in-ready listings tend to sell faster than properties needing renovation.
How much should I offer over or under list in Shelby County?
- Base your strategy on the current list-to-sale ratio for comparable homes, recent offer patterns, and property condition; in faster segments, near or above list may be needed, while cooler segments allow more negotiation.
Should I worry about investor activity when buying in Memphis?
- Ask for data on cash purchases and investor-tagged sales in your target area; higher investor presence can affect available inventory, pricing, and competition, especially in more affordable segments.
What local risks should buyers and sellers watch in Shelby County?
- Review flood zone status, property title and tax records, neighborhood-level crime trends, potential school rezoning, and planned infrastructure projects that could change traffic or desirability.
